Football Starter Pack vs Football Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Football Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.991x cash-out ratio against Football Ultra Pack's 0.703x, across 180 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Starter Pack | Football Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | SKIP |
| Pack price | $25 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $26.85 | $207.65 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.991x | 0.703x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.074x | 0.831x |
| Median pull | $22.50 | $214.50 |
| Hit rate | 33.5% | 12.5% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.45x | 0.39x |
| Pulls indexed | 164 | 16 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Starter Pack: 459 points from Jul 28 to Sep 10, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.99x, up overall (+40.6%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.15x. Football Ultra Pack: 524 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.99x and ending at 0.70x, down overall (-29.1%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.39x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Starter Pack vs Football Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Starter Pack or Football Ultra Pack?
- Football Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.991x vs 0.703x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Starter Pack: 33.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Football Ultra Pack: 12.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Football Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.45x vs 0.39x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Starter Pack EV & verdict · Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies