Football Starter Pack vs Football Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Football Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.931x cash-out ratio against Football Ultra Pack's 0.832x, across 2,579 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Starter Pack | Football Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | SKIP |
| Pack price | $25 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $26.06 | $245.80 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.931x | 0.832x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.042x | 0.983x |
| Median pull | $22.30 | $214.50 |
| Hit rate | 28.5% | 25.7% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.50x | 0.66x |
| Pulls indexed | 2,400 | 179 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Starter Pack: 964 points from Jul 28 to Oct 23, starting at 0.68x and ending at 0.93x, up overall (+36.3%), ranging between 0.67x and 1.11x. Football Ultra Pack: 974 points from Jul 17 to Oct 23, starting at 1.18x and ending at 0.83x, down overall (-29.2%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.39x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Starter Pack vs Football Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Starter Pack or Football Ultra Pack?
- Football Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.931x vs 0.832x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Starter Pack: 28.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Football Ultra Pack: 25.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Football Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.66x vs 0.50x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Starter Pack EV & verdict · Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies