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Football Pro Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.916x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Ultra Pack's 0.821x, across 619 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Pro PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$250
Calibrated EV$52.95$242.47
Cash-out ratio0.916x0.821x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.059x0.970x
Median pull$43.30$214.50
Hit rate30.9%21.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.50x0.46x
Pulls indexed59623

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Pro Pack: 665 points from Jul 17 to Sep 29, starting at 1.49x and ending at 0.92x, down overall (-38.4%), ranging between 0.76x and 1.49x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 665 points from Jul 17 to Sep 29, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.82x, up overall (+13.4%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.

Football Pro PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Pro Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Pro Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Football Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.916x vs 0.821x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Pro Pack: 30.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 21.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.46x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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