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Football Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 1.067x EV ratio against Football Pro Pack's 1.062x, across 243 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$25
Calibrated EV$53.10$26.68
EV ratio1.062x1.067x
Cash-out EV ratio0.999x0.997x
Median pull$43.80$22.40
Hit rate30.3%27.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.51x0.38x
Pulls indexed89154

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Pro Pack: 253 points from Jul 3 to Aug 12, starting at 1.47x and ending at 1.06x, down overall (-28.0%), ranging between 0.88x and 1.74x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 254 points from Jul 3 to Aug 12, starting at 0.90x and ending at 1.07x, up overall (+18.2%), ranging between 0.78x and 1.17x.

Football Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Football Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Pro Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.067x vs 1.062x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Pro Pack: 30.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 27.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.51x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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