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Football Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.897x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.839x, across 682 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Pro PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$100
Calibrated EV$51.86$99.20
Cash-out ratio0.897x0.839x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.037x0.992x
Median pull$43.30$85.45
Hit rate30.8%22.2%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.50x0.33x
Pulls indexed574108

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Pro Pack: 650 points from Jul 17 to Sep 27, starting at 1.49x and ending at 0.90x, down overall (-39.6%), ranging between 0.76x and 1.49x. Wildcard Master Pack: 651 points from Jul 12 to Sep 27, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.84x, essentially flat across the period, ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x.

Football Pro PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Pro Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Football Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.897x vs 0.839x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Pro Pack: 30.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 22.2%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.33x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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