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Football Pro Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.230x EV ratio against Football Pro Pack's 1.053x, across 103 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Pro PackSports Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$250
Calibrated EV$52.63$307.55
EV ratio1.053x1.230x
Cash-out EV ratio0.989x1.041x
Median pull$43.85$207.00
Hit rate30.9%33.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.50x0.52x
Pulls indexed949

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Pro Pack: 259 points from Jul 3 to Aug 13, starting at 1.47x and ending at 1.05x, down overall (-28.6%), ranging between 0.88x and 1.74x. Sports Ultra Pack: 260 points from Jul 3 to Aug 13, starting at 0.95x and ending at 1.23x, up overall (+28.9%), ranging between 0.78x and 2.00x.

Football Pro PackSports Ultra Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Football Pro Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Pro Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.230x vs 1.053x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Pro Pack: 30.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 33.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.50x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Pro Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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