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Football Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.971x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Ultra Pack's 0.821x, across 54 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$500$250
Calibrated EV$561.14$242.47
Cash-out ratio0.971x0.821x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.122x0.970x
Median pull$425.60$214.50
Hit rate41.9%21.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.41x0.46x
Pulls indexed3123

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Platinum Pack: 530 points from Aug 6 to Sep 29, starting at 0.64x and ending at 0.97x, up overall (+51.2%), ranging between 0.64x and 1.14x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 662 points from Jul 17 to Sep 29, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.82x, up overall (+13.4%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.

Football Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Platinum Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Football Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.971x vs 0.821x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Platinum Pack: 41.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 21.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.46x vs 0.41x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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