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Football Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.869x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.722x, across 32 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Platinum PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$500$500
Calibrated EV$494.19$413.00
Cash-out ratio0.869x0.722x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.988x0.826x
Median pull$425.30$415.40
Hit rate40.0%16.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.22x0.14x
Pulls indexed2012

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Platinum Pack: 452 points from Aug 6 to Sep 18, starting at 0.65x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+33.1%), ranging between 0.65x and 0.87x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 422 points from Aug 8 to Sep 18, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.72x, down overall (-9.5%), ranging between 0.67x and 0.80x.

Football Platinum PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Platinum Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Football Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.869x vs 0.722x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Platinum Pack: 40.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 16.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Platinum Pack has the higher volatility (0.22x vs 0.14x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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