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Football Platinum Pack vs Sports Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 1.122x cash-out ratio against Sports Master Pack's 0.917x, across 325 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Platinum PackSports Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$100
Calibrated EV$651.56$107.28
Cash-out ratio1.122x0.917x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.303x1.073x
Median pull$427.40$86.55
Hit rate30.9%21.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.54x0.37x
Pulls indexed81244

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Platinum Pack: 842 points from Aug 6 to Oct 23, starting at 0.64x and ending at 1.12x, up overall (+75.3%), ranging between 0.64x and 1.14x. Sports Master Pack: 974 points from Jul 17 to Oct 23, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+24.9%), ranging between 0.73x and 1.57x.

Football Platinum PackSports Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Platinum Pack vs Sports Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Platinum Pack or Sports Master Pack?
Football Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.122x vs 0.917x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Platinum Pack: 30.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Master Pack: 21.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Platinum Pack has the higher volatility (0.54x vs 0.37x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Sports Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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