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Football Master Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.914x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.722x, across 209 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Master PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$100$500
Calibrated EV$107.44$413.00
Cash-out ratio0.914x0.722x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.074x0.826x
Median pull$83.10$415.40
Hit rate31.0%16.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.50x0.14x
Pulls indexed19712

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Master Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+44.2%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.02x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 422 points from Aug 8 to Sep 18, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.72x, down overall (-9.5%), ranging between 0.67x and 0.80x.

Football Master PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Master Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Master Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Football Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.914x vs 0.722x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Master Pack: 31.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 16.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.14x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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