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Football Master Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.877x cash-out ratio against Sports Ultra Pack's 0.828x, across 327 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Master PackSports Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$100$250
Calibrated EV$103.27$244.06
Cash-out ratio0.877x0.828x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.033x0.976x
Median pull$84.05$219.50
Hit rate29.9%36.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.48x0.38x
Pulls indexed27849

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Master Pack: 663 points from Jul 12 to Sep 29, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+38.5%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.02x. Sports Ultra Pack: 663 points from Jul 12 to Sep 29, starting at 0.66x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+24.9%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.69x.

Football Master PackSports Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Master Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Master Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
Football Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.877x vs 0.828x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Master Pack: 29.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 36.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.48x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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