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Football Legend Pack vs Football Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Legend Pack is currently the better value: a 0.914x cash-out ratio against Football Master Pack's 0.821x, across 656 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Legend PackFootball Master Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$2500$100
Calibrated EV$2700.46$96.69
Cash-out ratio0.914x0.821x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.080x0.967x
Median pull$2115.00$84.65
Hit rate33.3%27.5%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.35x0.42x
Pulls indexed6650

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Legend Pack: 684 points from Aug 22 to Oct 23, starting at 0.69x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+32.5%), ranging between 0.60x and 1.14x. Football Master Pack: 966 points from Jul 12 to Oct 23, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.82x, up overall (+29.9%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.02x.

Football Legend PackFootball Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Legend Pack vs Football Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Legend Pack or Football Master Pack?
Football Legend Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.914x vs 0.821x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Legend Pack: 33.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Football Master Pack: 27.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.42x vs 0.35x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Legend Pack EV & verdict · Football Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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