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Comic Diamond Pack vs Modern Age Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Modern Age Pack is currently the better value: a 0.883x cash-out ratio against Comic Diamond Pack's 0.659x, across 84 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricComic Diamond PackModern Age Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$1000$100
Calibrated EV$779.54$104.32
Cash-out ratio0.659x0.883x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.780x1.043x
Median pull$770.00$89.60
Hit rate20.0%38.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.18x0.52x
Pulls indexed579

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Comic Diamond Pack: 565 points from Aug 3 to Sep 23, starting at 0.99x and ending at 0.66x, down overall (-33.2%), ranging between 0.66x and 0.99x. Modern Age Pack: 605 points from Jul 31 to Sep 23, starting at 1.84x and ending at 0.88x, down overall (-52.1%), ranging between 0.60x and 1.84x.

Comic Diamond PackModern Age Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Comic Diamond Pack vs Modern Age Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Comic Diamond Pack or Modern Age Pack?
Modern Age Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.883x vs 0.659x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Comic Diamond Pack: 20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Modern Age Pack: 38.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Modern Age Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.18x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Comic Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Modern Age Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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