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Bronze Age Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Bronze Age Pack is currently the better value: a 1.067x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Starter Pack's 0.921x, across 3,164 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBronze Age PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictNO DATACAUTION
Pack price$200$25
Calibrated EV$252.22$26.57
Cash-out ratio1.067x0.921x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.261x1.063x
Median pull$165.50$22.90
Hit rate36.8%29.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.78x0.41x
Pulls indexed763,088

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Bronze Age Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.57x and ending at 1.07x, up overall (+85.9%), ranging between 0.57x and 1.09x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.85x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+8.4%), ranging between 0.81x and 0.95x.

Bronze Age PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Bronze Age Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Bronze Age Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Bronze Age Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.067x vs 0.921x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Bronze Age Pack: 36.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 29.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Bronze Age Pack has the higher volatility (0.78x vs 0.41x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Bronze Age Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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