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Bronze Age Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Bronze Age Pack is currently the better value: a 1.067x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.727x, across 93 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBronze Age PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictBUYSKIP
Pack price$200$500
Calibrated EV$252.22$392.96
Cash-out ratio1.067x0.727x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.261x0.786x
Median pull$165.50$396.00
Hit rate36.8%11.8%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.78x0.15x
Pulls indexed7617

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Bronze Age Pack: 637 points from Aug 2 to Oct 2, starting at 0.54x and ending at 1.07x, up overall (+97.2%), ranging between 0.54x and 1.09x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 537 points from Aug 8 to Oct 2, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.73x, down overall (-14.0%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.84x.

Bronze Age PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Bronze Age Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Bronze Age Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Bronze Age Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.067x vs 0.727x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Bronze Age Pack: 36.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 11.8%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Bronze Age Pack has the higher volatility (0.78x vs 0.15x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Bronze Age Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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