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Bronze Age Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Bronze Age Pack is currently the better value: a 0.984x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.832x, across 154 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBronze Age PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$200$100
Calibrated EV$232.52$98.32
Cash-out ratio0.984x0.832x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.163x0.983x
Median pull$154.00$85.70
Hit rate34.8%22.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.79x0.34x
Pulls indexed6985

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Bronze Age Pack: 545 points from Aug 2 to Sep 21, starting at 0.54x and ending at 0.98x, up overall (+81.9%), ranging between 0.54x and 1.08x. Wildcard Master Pack: 608 points from Jul 12 to Sep 21, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.83x, down overall (-0.7%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x.

Bronze Age PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Bronze Age Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Bronze Age Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Bronze Age Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.984x vs 0.832x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Bronze Age Pack: 34.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 22.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Bronze Age Pack has the higher volatility (0.79x vs 0.34x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Bronze Age Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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