Basketball Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.030x cash-out ratio against Basketball Ultra Pack's 0.735x, across 110 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Ultra Pack | Wildcard Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $216.55 | $304.27 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.735x | 1.030x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.866x | 1.217x |
| Median pull | $205.00 | $221.60 |
| Hit rate | 16.3% | 27.8% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.36x | 0.47x |
| Pulls indexed | 92 | 18 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Ultra Pack: 584 points from Jul 28 to Sep 19, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.73x, up overall (+4.7%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.09x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 595 points from Jul 17 to Sep 19, starting at 0.72x and ending at 1.03x, up overall (+42.3%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.25x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Ultra Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.030x vs 0.735x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Ultra Pack: 16.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 27.8%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies