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Basketball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.920x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.841x, across 393 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Pro PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$100
Calibrated EV$52.13$99.43
Cash-out ratio0.920x0.841x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.043x0.994x
Median pull$43.60$85.45
Hit rate26.2%22.5%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.72x0.35x
Pulls indexed31380

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Pro Pack: 579 points from Jul 28 to Sep 19, starting at 0.85x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+8.2%), ranging between 0.79x and 1.02x. Wildcard Master Pack: 590 points from Jul 12 to Sep 19, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.84x, essentially flat across the period, ranging between 0.69x and 0.96x.

Basketball Pro PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Pro Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Basketball Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.920x vs 0.841x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Pro Pack: 26.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 22.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.72x vs 0.35x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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