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Basketball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.901x cash-out ratio against Basketball Pro Pack's 0.885x, across 1,925 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Pro PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$100
Calibrated EV$51.33$105.92
Cash-out ratio0.885x0.901x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.027x1.059x
Median pull$43.90$89.40
Hit rate31.1%31.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.52x0.49x
Pulls indexed1,529396

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 6 to Nov 2, starting at 0.90x and ending at 0.89x, down overall (-1.4%), ranging between 0.77x and 0.99x. Wildcard Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 6 to Nov 2, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+29.1%), ranging between 0.70x and 1.15x.

Basketball Pro PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Pro Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Wildcard Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.901x vs 0.885x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Pro Pack: 31.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 31.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.49x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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