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Basketball Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.889x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.687x, across 53 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Platinum PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$500$500
Calibrated EV$516.16$392.80
Cash-out ratio0.889x0.687x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.032x0.786x
Median pull$435.45$408.80
Hit rate25.0%15.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.36x0.14x
Pulls indexed4013

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Platinum Pack: 648 points from Jul 29 to Sep 29, starting at 0.76x and ending at 0.89x, up overall (+17.0%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.97x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 503 points from Aug 8 to Sep 29, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.69x, down overall (-13.9%), ranging between 0.67x and 0.80x.

Basketball Platinum PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Platinum Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Basketball Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.889x vs 0.687x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Platinum Pack: 25.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 15.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Platinum Pack has the higher volatility (0.36x vs 0.14x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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