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Basketball Master Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Basketball Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.877x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.696x, across 305 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Master PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$100$500
Calibrated EV$103.04$371.69
Cash-out ratio0.877x0.696x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.030x0.743x
Median pull$87.20$396.00
Hit rate26.2%13.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.47x0.14x
Pulls indexed29015

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Master Pack: 687 points from Jul 12 to Oct 1, starting at 1.45x and ending at 0.88x, down overall (-39.4%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.45x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 524 points from Aug 8 to Oct 1, starting at 0.86x and ending at 0.70x, down overall (-18.7%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.86x.

Basketball Master PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Master Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Master Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Basketball Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.877x vs 0.696x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Master Pack: 26.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 13.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Basketball Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.14x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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