Baseball Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Baseball Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.758x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Ultra Pack's 0.652x, across 13 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Baseball Ultra Pack | Wildcard Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $224.04 | $192.75 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.758x | 0.652x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.896x | 0.771x |
| Median pull | $219.75 | $200.00 |
| Hit rate | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.08x | 0.26x |
| Pulls indexed | 8 | 5 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Ultra Pack: 423 points from Aug 1 to Sep 10, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.76x, down overall (-3.4%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.80x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 524 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.65x and ending at 0.65x, up overall (+0.9%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.11x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Baseball Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Baseball Ultra Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
- Baseball Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.758x vs 0.652x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Baseball Ultra Pack: 0.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 20.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.26x vs 0.08x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Baseball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies