Baseball Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.323x cash-out ratio against Baseball Ultra Pack's 0.785x, across 184 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Baseball Ultra Pack | Wildcard Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | BUY |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $232.04 | $389.11 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.785x | 1.323x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.928x | 1.556x |
| Median pull | $214.00 | $217.75 |
| Hit rate | 24.2% | 35.0% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.38x | 0.83x |
| Pulls indexed | 124 | 60 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Ultra Pack: 987 points from Aug 1 to Oct 28, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.79x, essentially flat across the period, ranging between 0.70x and 0.91x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Jul 31 to Oct 28, starting at 0.73x and ending at 1.32x, up overall (+82.0%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.55x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Baseball Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Baseball Ultra Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.323x vs 0.785x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Baseball Ultra Pack: 24.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 35.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.83x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Baseball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies