Baseball Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.924x cash-out ratio against Baseball Ultra Pack's 0.796x, across 2,588 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Baseball Ultra Pack | Wildcard Starter Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $250 | $25 |
| Calibrated EV | $235.14 | $26.73 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.796x | 0.924x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.941x | 1.069x |
| Median pull | $214.00 | $22.70 |
| Hit rate | 25.0% | 27.7% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.38x | 0.39x |
| Pulls indexed | 128 | 2,460 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 3 to Oct 30, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+1.4%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.91x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 3 to Oct 30, starting at 0.92x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+0.8%), ranging between 0.81x and 0.95x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Baseball Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Baseball Ultra Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
- Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.924x vs 0.796x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Baseball Ultra Pack: 25.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 27.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.39x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Baseball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies