Baseball Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.935x cash-out ratio against Baseball Ultra Pack's 0.781x, across 261 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Baseball Ultra Pack | Sports Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $230.91 | $276.08 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.781x | 0.935x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.924x | 1.104x |
| Median pull | $214.00 | $221.95 |
| Hit rate | 25.5% | 36.2% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.36x | 0.48x |
| Pulls indexed | 145 | 116 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 5 to Nov 1, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.78x, down overall (-0.5%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.91x. Sports Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 5 to Nov 1, starting at 1.32x and ending at 0.94x, down overall (-29.3%), ranging between 0.68x and 1.32x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Baseball Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Baseball Ultra Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
- Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.935x vs 0.781x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Baseball Ultra Pack: 25.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 36.2%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.48x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Baseball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies