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Baseball Pro Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.561x EV ratio against Baseball Pro Pack's 1.203x, across 18 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Pro PackSports Ultra Pack
VerdictEARLY READEARLY READ
Pack price$50$250
Calibrated EV$60.13$390.37
EV ratio1.203x1.561x
Cash-out EV ratio1.072x1.321x
Median pull$49.95$221.50
Hit rate50.0%33.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.51x0.53x
Pulls indexed126

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Pro Pack: 158 points from Jul 3 to Aug 5, starting at 2.02x and ending at 1.20x, down overall (-40.3%), ranging between 1.20x and 2.06x. Sports Ultra Pack: 158 points from Jul 3 to Aug 5, starting at 0.95x and ending at 1.56x, up overall (+63.6%), ranging between 0.78x and 2.00x.

Baseball Pro PackSports Ultra Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Pro Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Pro Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.561x vs 1.203x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Pro Pack: 50.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 33.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.53x vs 0.51x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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