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Baseball Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.005x cash-out ratio against Baseball Platinum Pack's 0.862x, across 142 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$250
Calibrated EV$503.49$295.91
Cash-out ratio0.862x1.005x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.007x1.184x
Median pull$414.50$217.10
Hit rate37.7%32.9%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.48x0.80x
Pulls indexed6973

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Platinum Pack: 1000 points from Aug 5 to Nov 1, starting at 0.64x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+34.1%), ranging between 0.64x and 1.20x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 5 to Nov 1, starting at 0.73x and ending at 1.00x, up overall (+38.2%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.55x.

Baseball Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Platinum Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Wildcard Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.005x vs 0.862x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Platinum Pack: 37.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 32.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.80x vs 0.48x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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