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Baseball Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Baseball Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.786x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Ultra Pack's 0.652x, across 12 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$500$250
Calibrated EV$464.80$192.75
Cash-out ratio0.786x0.652x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.930x0.771x
Median pull$392.00$200.00
Hit rate28.6%20.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.19x0.26x
Pulls indexed75

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Platinum Pack: 425 points from Aug 1 to Sep 10, starting at 0.64x and ending at 0.79x, up overall (+23.8%), ranging between 0.64x and 0.87x. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 524 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.65x and ending at 0.65x, up overall (+0.9%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.11x.

Baseball Platinum PackWildcard Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Platinum Pack or Wildcard Ultra Pack?
Baseball Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.786x vs 0.652x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Platinum Pack: 28.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Ultra Pack: 20.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.26x vs 0.19x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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