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Baseball Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Baseball Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 1.091x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Platinum Pack's 0.986x, across 91 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Platinum PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$500
Calibrated EV$641.77$553.74
Cash-out ratio1.091x0.986x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.284x1.107x
Median pull$420.95$422.00
Hit rate37.0%24.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.51x0.27x
Pulls indexed5437

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Platinum Pack: 992 points from Aug 1 to Oct 28, starting at 0.64x and ending at 1.09x, up overall (+70.7%), ranging between 0.64x and 1.19x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 874 points from Aug 8 to Oct 28, starting at 0.81x and ending at 0.99x, up overall (+21.3%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.00x.

Baseball Platinum PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Platinum Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Platinum Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Baseball Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.091x vs 0.986x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Platinum Pack: 37.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 24.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Platinum Pack has the higher volatility (0.51x vs 0.27x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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