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Baseball Master Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Baseball Master Pack is currently the better value: a 1.128x EV ratio against Wildcard Starter Pack's 1.013x, across 150 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Master PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$100$25
Calibrated EV$112.77$25.33
EV ratio1.128x1.013x
Cash-out EV ratio0.954x0.950x
Median pull$85.00$22.20
Hit rate23.5%25.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.56x0.37x
Pulls indexed17133

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Master Pack: 234 points from Jul 3 to Aug 10, starting at 0.64x and ending at 1.13x, up overall (+77.6%), ranging between 0.62x and 1.17x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 234 points from Jul 3 to Aug 10, starting at 0.90x and ending at 1.01x, up overall (+12.2%), ranging between 0.78x and 1.17x.

Baseball Master PackWildcard Starter Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Master Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Master Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Baseball Master Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.128x vs 1.013x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Master Pack: 23.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 25.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.56x vs 0.37x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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