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Baseball Master Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.884x cash-out ratio against Baseball Master Pack's 0.828x, across 467 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Master PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$500
Calibrated EV$97.21$487.40
Cash-out ratio0.828x0.884x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.972x0.975x
Median pull$85.20$415.00
Hit rate30.5%21.9%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.46x0.26x
Pulls indexed42641

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 1 to Oct 29, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+14.7%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.29x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 886 points from Aug 8 to Oct 29, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+6.8%), ranging between 0.67x and 1.01x.

Baseball Master PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Master Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Master Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Wildcard Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.884x vs 0.828x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Master Pack: 30.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 21.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.46x vs 0.26x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Master Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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