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Baseball Diamond Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.986x cash-out ratio against Baseball Diamond Pack's 0.801x, across 68 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Diamond PackWildcard Platinum Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$1000$500
Calibrated EV$946.66$553.74
Cash-out ratio0.801x0.986x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.947x1.107x
Median pull$846.40$422.00
Hit rate38.7%24.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.40x0.27x
Pulls indexed3137

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Diamond Pack: 838 points from Aug 13 to Oct 28, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+27.3%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.39x. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 874 points from Aug 8 to Oct 28, starting at 0.81x and ending at 0.99x, up overall (+21.3%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.00x.

Baseball Diamond PackWildcard Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Diamond Pack vs Wildcard Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Diamond Pack or Wildcard Platinum Pack?
Wildcard Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.986x vs 0.801x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Diamond Pack: 38.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Platinum Pack: 24.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Diamond Pack has the higher volatility (0.40x vs 0.27x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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