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Baseball Diamond Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.964x cash-out ratio against Baseball Diamond Pack's 0.801x, across 335 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Diamond PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$1000$100
Calibrated EV$946.66$113.50
Cash-out ratio0.801x0.964x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.947x1.135x
Median pull$846.40$88.80
Hit rate38.7%29.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.40x0.51x
Pulls indexed31304

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Diamond Pack: 846 points from Aug 13 to Oct 29, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+27.3%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.39x. Wildcard Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 1 to Oct 29, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.96x, up overall (+27.9%), ranging between 0.70x and 1.15x.

Baseball Diamond PackWildcard Master Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Diamond Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Diamond Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Wildcard Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.964x vs 0.801x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Diamond Pack: 38.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 29.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.51x vs 0.40x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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