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Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.852x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Pro Pack's 0.852x, across 1,429 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Pro PackWildcard Pro Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$50$50
Calibrated EV$49.73$49.99
Cash-out ratio0.852x0.852x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.995x1.000x
Median pull$44.10$43.50
Hit rate32.8%30.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.47x0.40x
Pulls indexed723706

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 0.98x and ending at 0.85x, down overall (-13.3%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.01x. Wildcard Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 0.85x and ending at 0.85x, essentially flat across the period, ranging between 0.73x and 0.93x.

Sports Pro PackWildcard Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Pro Pack or Wildcard Pro Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.852x vs 0.852x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Pro Pack: 32.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Pro Pack: 30.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.40x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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