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Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.878x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Basic Pack's 0.838x, across 5,619 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$50$15
Calibrated EV$51.03$14.63
Cash-out ratio0.878x0.838x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.021x0.975x
Median pull$45.00$12.90
Hit rate31.3%19.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.52x0.40x
Pulls indexed3645,255

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Pro Pack: 773 points from Jul 12 to Oct 7, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+20.1%), ranging between 0.61x and 1.04x. Wildcard Basic Pack: 773 points from Jul 12 to Oct 7, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.84x, essentially flat across the period, ranging between 0.78x and 1.10x.

Sports Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Pro Pack or Wildcard Basic Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.878x vs 0.838x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Pro Pack: 31.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Basic Pack: 19.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.40x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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