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Sports Pro Pack vs Sports Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.963x cash-out ratio against Sports Pro Pack's 0.857x, across 3,371 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Pro PackSports Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$25
Calibrated EV$50.00$27.41
Cash-out ratio0.857x0.963x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.000x1.096x
Median pull$44.50$18.90
Hit rate32.7%34.8%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.47x0.77x
Pulls indexed5652,806

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Pro Pack: 994 points from Jul 12 to Oct 25, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+17.7%), ranging between 0.61x and 1.03x. Sports Starter Pack: 992 points from Jul 18 to Oct 25, starting at 0.52x and ending at 0.96x, up overall (+86.6%), ranging between 0.52x and 1.62x.

Sports Pro PackSports Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Pro Pack vs Sports Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Pro Pack or Sports Starter Pack?
Sports Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.963x vs 0.857x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Pro Pack: 32.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Starter Pack: 34.8%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.77x vs 0.47x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Sports Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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