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Soccer Starter Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Soccer Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.872x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Pro Pack's 0.812x, across 358 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Starter PackWildcard Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$25$50
Calibrated EV$24.18$47.43
Cash-out ratio0.872x0.812x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.967x0.949x
Median pull$22.00$42.00
Hit rate24.6%19.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.30x0.33x
Pulls indexed224134

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Starter Pack: 572 points from Jul 28 to Sep 18, starting at 1.09x and ending at 0.87x, down overall (-20.1%), ranging between 0.79x and 1.09x. Wildcard Pro Pack: 567 points from Jul 29 to Sep 18, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.81x, up overall (+21.2%), ranging between 0.63x and 0.93x.

Soccer Starter PackWildcard Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Starter Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Starter Pack or Wildcard Pro Pack?
Soccer Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.872x vs 0.812x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Starter Pack: 24.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Pro Pack: 19.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.33x vs 0.30x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Starter Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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