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Soccer Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Soccer Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.879x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Basic Pack's 0.844x, across 2,427 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$15
Calibrated EV$50.22$14.48
Cash-out ratio0.879x0.844x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.004x0.965x
Median pull$43.00$13.00
Hit rate27.9%19.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.39x0.39x
Pulls indexed2152,212

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Pro Pack: 577 points from Jul 26 to Sep 18, starting at 0.61x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+43.6%), ranging between 0.61x and 1.02x. Wildcard Basic Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 0.85x and ending at 0.84x, down overall (-1.2%), ranging between 0.79x and 1.12x.

Soccer Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Pro Pack or Wildcard Basic Pack?
Soccer Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.879x vs 0.844x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Pro Pack: 27.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Basic Pack: 19.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Soccer Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.39x vs 0.39x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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