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Soccer Master Pack vs Soccer Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Soccer Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.824x cash-out ratio against Soccer Master Pack's 0.725x, across 171 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Master PackSoccer Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$100$25
Calibrated EV$85.38$21.83
Cash-out ratio0.725x0.824x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.854x0.873x
Median pull$86.80$22.05
Hit rate25.4%23.2%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.39x0.29x
Pulls indexed63108

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Master Pack: 462 points from Jul 26 to Sep 10, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.72x, down overall (-1.1%), ranging between 0.66x and 0.98x. Soccer Starter Pack: 457 points from Jul 28 to Sep 10, starting at 1.14x and ending at 0.82x, down overall (-27.8%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.14x.

Soccer Master PackSoccer Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Master Pack vs Soccer Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Master Pack or Soccer Starter Pack?
Soccer Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.824x vs 0.725x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Master Pack: 25.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Soccer Starter Pack: 23.2%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Soccer Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.39x vs 0.29x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Master Pack EV & verdict · Soccer Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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