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Pokémon Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.913x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Basic Pack's 0.856x, across 26,858 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$15
Calibrated EV$53.39$15.00
Cash-out ratio0.913x0.856x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.068x1.000x
Median pull$43.00$13.20
Hit rate30.4%26.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.63x0.48x
Pulls indexed10,50316,355

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 0.86x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+6.4%), ranging between 0.84x and 0.95x. Wildcard Basic Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+2.4%), ranging between 0.82x and 0.88x.

Pokémon Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Pro Pack or Wildcard Basic Pack?
Pokémon Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.913x vs 0.856x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Pro Pack: 30.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Basic Pack: 26.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.63x vs 0.48x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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