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Pokémon Pro Pack vs Pokémon Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.939x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Pro Pack's 0.870x, across 30,078 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Pro PackPokémon Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$50$25
Calibrated EV$50.90$26.31
Cash-out ratio0.870x0.939x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.018x1.052x
Median pull$43.60$22.00
Hit rate29.6%27.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.52x0.49x
Pulls indexed7,05723,021

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Pro Pack: 994 points from Jul 12 to Oct 25, starting at 0.82x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+6.0%), ranging between 0.82x and 0.95x. Pokémon Starter Pack: 994 points from Jul 12 to Oct 25, starting at 0.90x and ending at 0.94x, up overall (+4.7%), ranging between 0.85x and 0.94x.

Pokémon Pro PackPokémon Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Pro Pack vs Pokémon Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Pro Pack or Pokémon Starter Pack?
Pokémon Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.939x vs 0.870x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Pro Pack: 29.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Starter Pack: 27.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.49x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Pro Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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