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Pokémon Basic Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Basic Pack is currently the better value: a 0.907x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Pro Pack's 0.829x, across 7,647 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Basic PackWildcard Pro Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$15$50
Calibrated EV$15.76$48.69
Cash-out ratio0.907x0.829x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.051x0.974x
Median pull$12.90$43.50
Hit rate28.0%30.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.77x0.39x
Pulls indexed6,886761

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Basic Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 5, starting at 0.61x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+48.7%), ranging between 0.58x and 0.93x. Wildcard Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 5, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+3.4%), ranging between 0.73x and 0.93x.

Pokémon Basic PackWildcard Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Basic Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Basic Pack or Wildcard Pro Pack?
Pokémon Basic Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.907x vs 0.829x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Basic Pack: 28.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Pro Pack: 30.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Basic Pack has the higher volatility (0.77x vs 0.39x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Basic Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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