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One Piece Diamond Pack vs One Piece Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, One Piece Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.856x cash-out ratio against One Piece Diamond Pack's 0.700x, across 66 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricOne Piece Diamond PackOne Piece Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$1000$250
Calibrated EV$827.32$252.95
Cash-out ratio0.700x0.856x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.827x1.012x
Median pull$837.00$226.00
Hit rate0.0%36.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.05x0.44x
Pulls indexed561

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. One Piece Diamond Pack: 579 points from Jul 29 to Sep 20, starting at 0.69x and ending at 0.70x, up overall (+1.9%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.76x. One Piece Ultra Pack: 579 points from Jul 29 to Sep 20, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+22.3%), ranging between 0.70x and 1.72x.

One Piece Diamond PackOne Piece Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

One Piece Diamond Pack vs One Piece Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: One Piece Diamond Pack or One Piece Ultra Pack?
One Piece Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.856x vs 0.700x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
One Piece Diamond Pack: 0.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. One Piece Ultra Pack: 36.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
One Piece Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.44x vs 0.05x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: One Piece Diamond Pack EV & verdict · One Piece Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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