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Hockey Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Hockey Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.881x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Basic Pack's 0.853x, across 16,164 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricHockey Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$15
Calibrated EV$51.56$14.95
Cash-out ratio0.881x0.853x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.031x0.997x
Median pull$44.70$13.10
Hit rate32.2%25.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.48x0.48x
Pulls indexed48115,683

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Hockey Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 5 to Nov 1, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+10.7%), ranging between 0.74x and 1.00x. Wildcard Basic Pack: 1000 points from Aug 5 to Nov 1, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+2.6%), ranging between 0.82x and 0.88x.

Hockey Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Hockey Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Hockey Pro Pack or Wildcard Basic Pack?
Hockey Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.881x vs 0.853x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Hockey Pro Pack: 32.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Basic Pack: 25.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Neither stands out: both sit at about 0.48x stddev/EV, so on this measure they are level.

Full pages: Hockey Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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