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Hockey Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Basic Pack is currently the better value: a 0.895x cash-out ratio against Hockey Pro Pack's 0.875x, across 1,214 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricHockey Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$15
Calibrated EV$51.57$14.95
Cash-out ratio0.875x0.895x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.031x0.997x
Median pull$45.40$13.10
Hit rate33.3%18.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.28x0.39x
Pulls indexed391,175

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Hockey Pro Pack: 450 points from Jul 29 to Sep 11, starting at 0.64x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+36.5%), ranging between 0.64x and 1.00x. Wildcard Basic Pack: 474 points from Jul 12 to Sep 11, starting at 0.88x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+2.2%), ranging between 0.81x and 1.15x.

Hockey Pro PackWildcard Basic Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Hockey Pro Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Hockey Pro Pack or Wildcard Basic Pack?
Wildcard Basic Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.895x vs 0.875x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Hockey Pro Pack: 33.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Basic Pack: 18.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Wildcard Basic Pack has the higher volatility (0.39x vs 0.28x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Hockey Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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