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Football Pro Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.873x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Pro Pack's 0.836x, across 854 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Pro PackWildcard Pro Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$50$50
Calibrated EV$50.56$49.01
Cash-out ratio0.873x0.836x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.011x0.980x
Median pull$43.20$42.70
Hit rate29.6%23.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.49x0.34x
Pulls indexed645209

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Pro Pack: 683 points from Jul 17 to Sep 30, starting at 1.48x and ending at 0.87x, down overall (-41.1%), ranging between 0.76x and 1.48x. Wildcard Pro Pack: 666 points from Jul 29 to Sep 30, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.84x, up overall (+25.3%), ranging between 0.63x and 0.93x.

Football Pro PackWildcard Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Pro Pack vs Wildcard Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Pro Pack or Wildcard Pro Pack?
Football Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.873x vs 0.836x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Pro Pack: 29.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Pro Pack: 23.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.49x vs 0.34x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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