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Football Master Pack vs Sports Platinum Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Platinum Pack is currently the better value: a 0.959x cash-out ratio against Football Master Pack's 0.888x, across 284 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Master PackSports Platinum Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$100$500
Calibrated EV$104.56$552.35
Cash-out ratio0.888x0.959x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.046x1.105x
Median pull$84.30$430.10
Hit rate30.3%23.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.48x0.47x
Pulls indexed27113

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Master Pack: 657 points from Jul 12 to Sep 28, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.89x, up overall (+40.3%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.02x. Sports Platinum Pack: 502 points from Aug 8 to Sep 28, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.96x, up overall (+37.4%), ranging between 0.62x and 1.04x.

Football Master PackSports Platinum Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Football Master Pack vs Sports Platinum Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Master Pack or Sports Platinum Pack?
Sports Platinum Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.959x vs 0.888x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Master Pack: 30.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Platinum Pack: 23.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.48x vs 0.47x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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