Football Master Pack vs Sports Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Basic Pack is currently the better value: a 0.866x cash-out ratio against Football Master Pack's 0.817x, across 4,299 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Master Pack | Sports Basic Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $100 | $15 |
| Calibrated EV | $96.27 | $15.08 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.817x | 0.866x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.963x | 1.005x |
| Median pull | $84.80 | $12.80 |
| Hit rate | 28.0% | 20.4% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.42x | 0.45x |
| Pulls indexed | 671 | 3,628 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Master Pack: 982 points from Jul 12 to Oct 25, starting at 0.63x and ending at 0.82x, up overall (+29.3%), ranging between 0.63x and 1.02x. Sports Basic Pack: 970 points from Jul 28 to Oct 25, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+16.0%), ranging between 0.75x and 0.89x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Master Pack vs Sports Basic Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Master Pack or Sports Basic Pack?
- Sports Basic Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.866x vs 0.817x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Master Pack: 28.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Basic Pack: 20.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Basic Pack has the higher volatility (0.45x vs 0.42x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies