Football Basic Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Wildcard Basic Pack is currently the better value: a 0.856x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.820x, across 12,141 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Wildcard Basic Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $15 | $15 |
| Calibrated EV | $14.16 | $14.97 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.820x | 0.856x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.944x | 0.998x |
| Median pull | $12.80 | $13.10 |
| Hit rate | 18.7% | 23.7% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.38x | 0.44x |
| Pulls indexed | 401 | 11,740 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 783 points from Aug 15 to Oct 26, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.82x, up overall (+3.4%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.93x. Wildcard Basic Pack: 1000 points from Jul 26 to Oct 26, starting at 1.10x and ending at 0.86x, down overall (-21.9%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.10x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Wildcard Basic Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Wildcard Basic Pack?
- Wildcard Basic Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.856x vs 0.820x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 18.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Basic Pack: 23.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Wildcard Basic Pack has the higher volatility (0.44x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies