Football Basic Pack vs Sports Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.938x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.884x, across 1,556 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Sports Starter Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $15 | $25 |
| Calibrated EV | $15.38 | $26.18 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.884x | 0.938x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.025x | 1.047x |
| Median pull | $12.70 | $19.10 |
| Hit rate | 17.9% | 32.5% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.42x | 0.70x |
| Pulls indexed | 84 | 1,472 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 387 points from Aug 15 to Sep 21, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+12.3%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.95x. Sports Starter Pack: 610 points from Jul 18 to Sep 21, starting at 0.53x and ending at 0.94x, up overall (+78.0%), ranging between 0.53x and 1.65x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Sports Starter Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Sports Starter Pack?
- Sports Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.938x vs 0.884x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 17.9% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Starter Pack: 32.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.70x vs 0.42x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Sports Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies