Football Basic Pack vs Sports Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.934x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.881x, across 4,285 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Sports Starter Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $15 | $25 |
| Calibrated EV | $15.16 | $26.72 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.881x | 0.934x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.011x | 1.069x |
| Median pull | $13.00 | $20.20 |
| Hit rate | 23.6% | 35.1% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.44x | 0.75x |
| Pulls indexed | 589 | 3,696 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 968 points from Aug 15 to Nov 5, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+10.7%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.94x. Sports Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 12 to Nov 5, starting at 0.90x and ending at 0.93x, up overall (+4.1%), ranging between 0.82x and 0.98x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Sports Starter Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Sports Starter Pack?
- Sports Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.934x vs 0.881x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 23.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Starter Pack: 35.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.75x vs 0.44x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Sports Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies