Football Basic Pack vs Sports Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.983x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.840x, across 428 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Sports Pro Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $15 | $50 |
| Calibrated EV | $14.64 | $57.09 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.840x | 0.983x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.976x | 1.142x |
| Median pull | $12.70 | $45.20 |
| Hit rate | 16.3% | 33.8% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.41x | 0.54x |
| Pulls indexed | 147 | 281 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 457 points from Aug 15 to Sep 30, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.84x, up overall (+6.9%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.92x. Sports Pro Pack: 682 points from Jul 12 to Sep 30, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.98x, up overall (+34.3%), ranging between 0.61x and 1.04x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Sports Pro Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Sports Pro Pack?
- Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.983x vs 0.840x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 16.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Pro Pack: 33.8%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.54x vs 0.41x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies