Football Basic Pack vs Sports Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Basic Pack is currently the better value: a 0.864x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.821x, across 4,175 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Sports Basic Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $15 | $15 |
| Calibrated EV | $14.18 | $15.05 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.821x | 0.864x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.945x | 1.003x |
| Median pull | $12.80 | $12.80 |
| Hit rate | 18.6% | 21.0% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.38x | 0.45x |
| Pulls indexed | 397 | 3,778 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 769 points from Aug 15 to Oct 25, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.82x, up overall (+3.5%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.93x. Sports Basic Pack: 982 points from Jul 28 to Oct 25, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+15.7%), ranging between 0.75x and 0.89x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Sports Basic Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Sports Basic Pack?
- Sports Basic Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.864x vs 0.821x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 18.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Basic Pack: 21.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Basic Pack has the higher volatility (0.45x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Sports Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies