Football Basic Pack vs Sports Basic Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Basic Pack is currently the better value: a 0.917x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.791x, across 239 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Sports Basic Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $15 | $15 |
| Calibrated EV | $13.46 | $15.03 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.791x | 0.917x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.897x | 1.002x |
| Median pull | $12.50 | $12.70 |
| Hit rate | 8.7% | 19.0% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.24x | 0.37x |
| Pulls indexed | 23 | 216 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 247 points from Aug 15 to Sep 10, starting at 0.81x and ending at 0.79x, down overall (-1.7%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.81x. Sports Basic Pack: 460 points from Jul 28 to Sep 10, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+15.6%), ranging between 0.79x and 0.94x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Sports Basic Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Sports Basic Pack?
- Sports Basic Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.917x vs 0.791x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 8.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Basic Pack: 19.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Basic Pack has the higher volatility (0.37x vs 0.24x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Sports Basic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies