Football Basic Pack vs Football Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Football Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.936x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.829x, across 2,833 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Football Starter Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $15 | $25 |
| Calibrated EV | $14.36 | $26.19 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.829x | 0.936x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.957x | 1.048x |
| Median pull | $12.80 | $22.30 |
| Hit rate | 18.7% | 28.6% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.38x | 0.51x |
| Pulls indexed | 390 | 2,443 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 758 points from Aug 15 to Oct 25, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+4.8%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.93x. Football Starter Pack: 972 points from Jul 28 to Oct 25, starting at 0.68x and ending at 0.94x, up overall (+37.0%), ranging between 0.67x and 1.11x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Football Starter Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Football Starter Pack?
- Football Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.936x vs 0.829x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 18.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Football Starter Pack: 28.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Football Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.51x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Football Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies