Football Basic Pack vs Football Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Football Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.933x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.791x, across 244 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Football Pro Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $15 | $50 |
| Calibrated EV | $13.46 | $51.63 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.791x | 0.933x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.897x | 1.033x |
| Median pull | $12.50 | $44.40 |
| Hit rate | 8.7% | 33.9% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.24x | 0.50x |
| Pulls indexed | 23 | 221 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 245 points from Aug 15 to Sep 10, starting at 0.81x and ending at 0.79x, down overall (-1.7%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.81x. Football Pro Pack: 524 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 1.33x and ending at 0.93x, down overall (-30.0%), ranging between 0.79x and 1.57x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Football Pro Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Football Pro Pack?
- Football Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.933x vs 0.791x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 8.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Football Pro Pack: 33.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Football Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.24x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Football Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies