Football Basic Pack vs Football Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Football Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.843x cash-out ratio against Football Basic Pack's 0.829x, across 1,880 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Basic Pack | Football Pro Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $15 | $50 |
| Calibrated EV | $14.36 | $49.12 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.829x | 0.843x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.957x | 0.982x |
| Median pull | $12.80 | $43.20 |
| Hit rate | 18.7% | 27.9% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.38x | 0.51x |
| Pulls indexed | 390 | 1,490 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Basic Pack: 750 points from Aug 15 to Oct 23, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+4.8%), ranging between 0.69x and 0.93x. Football Pro Pack: 974 points from Jul 17 to Oct 23, starting at 1.47x and ending at 0.84x, down overall (-42.8%), ranging between 0.75x and 1.47x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Basic Pack vs Football Pro Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Basic Pack or Football Pro Pack?
- Football Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.843x vs 0.829x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Basic Pack: 18.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Football Pro Pack: 27.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Football Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.51x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Basic Pack EV & verdict · Football Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies