Basketball Starter Pack vs Basketball Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Basketball Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.895x cash-out ratio against Basketball Ultra Pack's 0.786x, across 157 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Starter Pack | Basketball Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | SKIP |
| Pack price | $25 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $24.22 | $230.48 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.895x | 0.786x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.969x | 0.922x |
| Median pull | $22.10 | $220.00 |
| Hit rate | 25.0% | 20.7% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.32x | 0.49x |
| Pulls indexed | 128 | 29 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Starter Pack: 459 points from Jul 28 to Sep 10, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+25.5%), ranging between 0.71x and 0.98x. Basketball Ultra Pack: 458 points from Jul 28 to Sep 10, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.79x, up overall (+11.3%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.10x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Starter Pack vs Basketball Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Starter Pack or Basketball Ultra Pack?
- Basketball Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.895x vs 0.786x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Starter Pack: 25.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Basketball Ultra Pack: 20.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Basketball Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.49x vs 0.32x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Starter Pack EV & verdict · Basketball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies