Basketball Starter Pack vs Basketball Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Basketball Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.922x cash-out ratio against Basketball Ultra Pack's 0.811x, across 2,022 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Starter Pack | Basketball Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | SKIP |
| Pack price | $25 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $25.78 | $239.13 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.922x | 0.811x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.031x | 0.957x |
| Median pull | $22.70 | $212.20 |
| Hit rate | 28.1% | 23.1% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.44x | 0.33x |
| Pulls indexed | 1,788 | 234 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Starter Pack: 1000 points from Jul 30 to Oct 28, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+10.6%), ranging between 0.78x and 0.95x. Basketball Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Jul 30 to Oct 28, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.81x, up overall (+15.5%), ranging between 0.65x and 1.09x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Starter Pack vs Basketball Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Starter Pack or Basketball Ultra Pack?
- Basketball Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.922x vs 0.811x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Starter Pack: 28.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Basketball Ultra Pack: 23.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Basketball Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.44x vs 0.33x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Starter Pack EV & verdict · Basketball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies